According to the latest forecast of the European Grain Association COCERAL, the grain harvest in the European Union (EU) and the UK in 2023 will amount to 289.8 million tons. This is significantly less than the June forecast (296.7 million tons) and almost at the same level as last year's harvest (290.1 million tons), according to the Ukrainian Grain Association.

The main reason for the downgrade was an early dry summer in the northern regions of the EU, which had a greater impact on the harvest than expected. Harvest estimates were adjusted downward for such countries as Germany, Bulgaria, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Latvia.

Wheat production (excluding durum) in the EU is expected to reach 141.0 million tons, down from 142.4 million tons in the previous forecast and compared to the 2022 harvest (143.6 million tons).

Barley production in the EU-27 and the UK in 2023 is projected at 54.7 million tons, down from the previous forecast (56.6 million tons) and compared to the 2022 harvest (58.6 million tons).

The corn harvest is estimated at 60.8 million tons, which is less than the previous forecast (61.3 million tons), but significantly more than last year's harvest (52.7 million tons). France, Germany, Italy, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria expect an improved harvest after the 2022 crop was affected by severe drought and heat.

The EU-27 and UK rapeseed harvest is forecast at 20.4 million tons, down from 21.0 million tons in the previous forecast and down from 19.9 million tons in 2022.